REVIEWER 2 - CRITICAL REVIEW
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**Overall Recommendation: Weak Reject (2/5)**

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**1. Overall Impression**
My immediate reaction is one of significant methodological concern despite the important subject matter. This reads as an advocacy piece masquerading as rigorous research, with fundamental flaws in objectivity, methodological transparency, and causal inference. While the topic is undoubtedly important, the study presents as overhyped rather than breakthrough, with claims systematically exceeding the evidentiary basis. The manuscript demonstrates sophisticated theoretical framing but employs this framing to bypass rather than address core methodological requirements for conflict epidemiology.

**Strengths:** Important topic, comprehensive theoretical framing, large dataset, clear writing structure
**Concerns:** Fatal methodological opacity, advocacy positioning masquerading as objectivity, uncontrolled confounding, unsubstantiated causal claims, cherry-picked comparisons

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**2. Technical & Scientific Assessment**

**A. Problem Definition: 3/5**
The research questions are clearly motivated and non-trivial, addressing important gaps in conflict documentation. However, the framing presupposes conclusions ("systematic protection failure") rather than investigating them neutrally. The motivation leans heavily into advocacy positioning rather than scientific inquiry.

**B. Methodological Soundness: 1/5**
Fatal flaws pervade the methodology:
- No description of sampling methodology or representativeness assessment
- No discussion of potential systematic biases in data collection
- Casualty records treated as ground truth without verification protocols
- Statistical analyses (correlations, logistic regression) presented without necessary assumptions testing
- No power calculations or multiple testing corrections
- Hidden assumption that all documented fatalities represent protection failures rather than incidental casualties

**C. Results & Evidence: 2/5**
Results are presented as compelling but lack critical controls:
- No comparison to expected baseline mortality
- No discussion of combatant inclusion/exclusion criteria
- Correlation analyses presented as causal evidence
- No sensitivity analyses for imputation procedures
- Tables referenced but not provided in manuscript, preventing evaluation
- Claims of "systematic patterns" exceed correlational evidence

**D. Contribution to the Field: 2/5**
While the topic is important, the methodological flaws undermine potential contribution. The mixed-methods approach is conceptually sound but executed with fatal transparency issues. The work would likely be cited for its substantive focus rather than methodological innovation.

**E. Writing & Presentation: 4/5**
Well-organized and clearly written, with appropriate theoretical framing. However, the advocacy tone and conclusory language ("systematic protection failure") undermine scientific objectivity.

**F. Ethical & Transparency Standards: 1/5**
Critical failures:
- No IRB approval mentioned for analysis of sensitive casualty data
- No data availability statement
- No code availability
- Referenced tables absent from manuscript
- No conflict of interest statement despite clear advocacy positioning

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**3. Strengths**
- Important and timely subject matter
- Large dataset spanning significant time period
- Sophisticated theoretical framing integrating multiple disciplines
- Clear attempt at methodological triangulation
- Comprehensive variable collection (temporal, demographic, geographic)

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**4. Weaknesses**

**Major Flaws:**
1. **Methodological Opacity:** Critical details missing about data collection protocols, verification procedures, and sampling methodology
2. **Causal Overreach:** Correlation analyses presented as evidence of causal mechanisms
3. **Uncontrolled Confounding:** No adjustment for population density changes due to displacement
4. **Combatant Inclusion:** No discussion of methods to distinguish combatant from civilian casualties
5. **Verification Gap:** Treats casualty records as ground truth without independent verification
6. **Statistical Assumptions:** No testing of regression assumptions or discussion of model diagnostics

**Minor Flaws:**
- Advocacy language throughout undermines objectivity
- References to missing tables/figures
- Inconsistent citation formatting
- Overuse of conclusory language before presenting evidence

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**5. Recommendations for Improvement**

**Required for Resubmission:**
1. Full methodological transparency: detailed data collection protocols, sampling methodology, verification procedures
2. Independent verification of casualty records through random sample validation
3. Combatant exclusion methodology with transparency about uncertainty
4. Baseline mortality comparisons and population denominator adjustments
5. Complete statistical diagnostics including multicollinearity assessment, residual analysis, and multiple testing corrections
6. Sensitivity analyses for all imputation procedures
7. IRB approval and data/code availability statements
8. Removal of advocacy language and conclusory framing

**Would Strengthen Paper:**
1. Comparison to other urban conflict mortality patterns
2. Uncertainty quantification for all estimates
3. Discussion of alternative explanations for observed patterns
4. Formal mediation analysis for proposed causal pathways
5. Independent replication of statistical analyses

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**6. Verdict: Weak Reject (2/5)**

**Justification:** This manuscript addresses an important topic with sophisticated theoretical framing but suffers from fatal methodological flaws that preclude meaningful scientific contribution in its current form. The absence of basic methodological transparency, uncontrolled confounding, unverified data treatment as ground truth, and causal overreach fundamentally undermine the validity of the conclusions. While the subject matter demands rigorous investigation, this study fails to meet the methodological standards required for publication in a tier-1 venue. The paper could potentially be reconsidered after complete methodological overhaul and independent verification, but requires essentially starting from methodological first principles.

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**Reviewer 2 Style Compliance:** I have applied rigorous skepticism, demanded strong justification for claims, and highlighted fundamental methodological flaws without deference to the important subject matter. The burden of proof rests entirely with the authors to demonstrate their data quality, methodological rigor, and causal claims - a burden this manuscript fails to meet.